Robert’s Crystal Range Project – Year 2, 2020

[Maggi Young]

So pleased  you  are  continuing to  share  all this  with  us, Robert. And  thanks  to Trond  for  your  insights  from  Norway, too!

[Robert]

Hi Maggi,

Thank you for the encouraging words.    I appreciated this very much. I may be busy, but I enjoy writing this diary and have no desire to stop writing. I experiment a bit with the content, making an effort to make it relevant for as many as possible. As for the forum, it is time for me to make a financial donation. It is from both our financial contributions and participation that the forum is successful and will continue to be successful. In this forum, we all have a valuable asset.

I injured my leg this week while climbing in a tree (pruning). I am not 20 any more!    No snow survey this week. My leg is starting to heal and I feel sure that I will be able to get out next week.

Yes, I agree 110%. I enjoy Trond’s postings about his part of Norway. Perhaps it seems everyday to him, but I find it very fascinating. Thank you Trond. 

[Robert]

While waiting for my leg to heal I can report on our current weather and climate here in our portion of Northern California.

January was a dry month with below average precipitation and above average temperatures. The average temperature for the month was 46.87 F (8.26 C) at the Placerville farm. This was 1.83 F (1.02 C) above the 40-year average; however considering the standard deviation for the month of 2.30 the above average temperature was not extreme.

Precipitation was well below average for the month. We are currently running at 73% of average precipitation for the season to date (through 31 January 2020). The snow pack in the Sierra Nevada is also running below average, however this varies from site to site. Most location at or below 5,000 feet (1,524 meters) have no snow cover at this time and the snow pack between 5,000 and 5,500 feet (1,524 to 1,676 meters) is diminishing rapidly. Currently we are experiencing much above average temperatures, which is increasing the rate of snowmelt, and sublimation.

It is difficult to forecast the future precipitation trend. The GFS forecast model for the next 7 days has been a bit inconsistent especially for day 7. This is not unusual for the winter months. At this time precipitation looks to be below average for the next 7 days. Beyond this point there are conflicting trends in both the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. My bet is that dry conditions will continue as the strong East Asian jet stream is frequently disrupted and weakened as it moves eastward past the dateline. The cooling SSTs off the west coast of North America are supporting a strong southwestern flow at times, however it is very questionable if this flow will sag southward to influence our weather here in Northern California.

My leg is healing. I hope to be out again soon reporting on our native plants and how they are responding to our ever-changing weather.

Until the next time…

[Hoy]

Thank you for your kind words, Maggi!

And also thanks to you Robert, for your interesting reports from your corner of the world. Sorry to hear that you hurt your leg. Hope you soon are fit for walking!


Here we have had the warmest January ever in many parts of Norway. Typically, in Oslo where the temperature has been measured since 1816 the monthly average was +2.7C.  The normal is -4.5C. The precipitation was well above average.

But yesterday we had the first snowfall (well sleet actually) in a year here where I live, and it accumulated a little. We got 5cm before it turned to rain.

Caltha palustris soon in flower despite the snow yesterday.

[Robert]

Hi Trond,

It looks like spring might arrive sooner than later in your part of the world. Here the weather is currently swinging between very high temperatures and very low temperatures. It has also been very dry. There is no meaningful precipitation in sight and we are falling farther and farther behind average precipitation to date.

My leg has healed enough where I was able to do my weekly snow survey yesterday, 6 February. I will have to report on this later. Work is getting both extremely interesting and enjoyable, but also very demanding. I will report on yesterday’s survey activities when I can. I do have some photographs to share and although the plants are dormant for the most part, there is activity. More on this later…

[Robert]

I just processed the photographs from my last snow survey. There is a story to tell, however it may be a week before I can write things up. We shall see.

Also, there is an increasing likelihood that the storm track will move such that we will start getting stroms dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. Good news for us.

[Hoy]

Glad to hear your leg is healing!

Here is what we are expecting tomorrow, no lack of precipitation here. It is more like a very wet fall than a spring.








I think you understand the symbols!

[Robert]

Hi Trond,

Can you send us some of your precipitation?

Our precipitation totals are rapidly falling well below average. To date, 9 February, I have recorded 341.88 mm of precipitation at the Placerville farm. This is 66% of average to date.

I currently have about 15 years of precipitation data from 6,700 feet (2,042 meters) in my study area (Sierra Nevada Mountains). Here snow water liquid equivalents are at 47.19 cm, with 1.19 meters of snow on the ground. This is 80% of the 15-year average to date. I am working on recording the remaining portion of the data set for this site, which dates back to 1972. With the complete data set, this set of figures will have a greater degree of accuracy.

Currently the 7-day GFS forecast is not encouraging concerning precipitation for our region. There are indications that the pattern could change and cold storms out of the Gulf of Alaska could arrive in the next 10 to 20 day period. If this pans out it would be much welcomed! Beyond this point there is a possibility (maybe 20% - 25%) that an atmospheric river may develop and send a great deal of much needed precipitation to our region. As of today, other important atmospheric conditions need to change for this to become a likely scenario.

We shall see what happens. In the mean time, our weather is rapidly changing between cold below average temperatures and warm above average temperatures. Currently we are about 1 F below average for the month of February. The large swings in temperature look as if they will continue for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

   Yes, i think that I understand the symbols. 

[Hoy]

Robert,

 if I could I would gladly send you our precipitation for the next month!

This is the precipitation for the wettest days in January 2020: 399.6, 365.5, 292.2, 259.5, 249.5 mm/day (24h). (Data from Bergen)

The berries still cling to the shrub on this Vaccinium vitis-idaea (tyttebær!) despite all the rain.



 

[Hoy]

The spring here is a very slow process. According to the definition of winter we use here (the average temperature below 0C) we never have proper winter at the west coast of Norway. This year the average for January has been between 5 and 6C. February is usually the coldest month though. So far the average is about 5C.

This shrub, Abeliophyllum distichum, shouldn't flower before April!

[Gerdk]

This shrub, Abeliophyllum distichum, shouldn't flower before April!

A similar situation here in Western Germany - Abeliophyllum distichum (and Forsythia ovata) in flower!
My five year old grandson told me recently: Why don't we have some snow? I don't  know what to reply.

Gerd

[Robert]

Now I am recovering from the flu. 

At least things are getting better.

I can understand Gerd’s dilemma as to how to talk with his grandson. I have been working with mathematical climate models lately. The science behind climate change is extremely complex and the bottom line is that we really do not know what the future impacts might be regardless of what we do, or not do, on the Earth. We are in uncharted territory.

[Robert]

This is an answer from my wife:
     A good simple explanation of climate change is that planet Earth has the flu.  Just as we have fever and chills, and other symptoms when we have the flu, the Earth is having the flu.  We get the flu from viruses, but planet Earth has the flu from the unhealthy things we have put in the air, soil, and water, and from the unhealthy things we do on the planet such as eliminating forests.  Sadly, many of our activities that are unhealthy for the planet were not intended to be so.  Agriculture—farming the land for fruits, vegetables, grains and legumes, and livestock such as poultry, cattle, sheep, and goats—was intended as a good to feed us.  However, we have not always done things in a healthy way.  In fact, some of the forests are disappeared now because we cleared them in order to feed all the people.
     Just as our parents, or the doctor may tell us what to do to heal from the flu, we are told we need to act on climate change before it is too late. This is a misleading statement. It is never too late to act on climate, but “too late” is a subjective statement that is confusing. It is much more accurate to state that we do not know what the future impacts of climate change will be on Earth.  We do not have a parent or a doctor to tell us what will indeed happen or what to do to help the planet heal without creating a great deal of suffering for many people.  It was our intent to reduce the suffering of hunger that created some of the problems we see.
     An older child can have a more complex explanation, one geared for their level of understanding.  The dilemma will remain, for we are indeed in unknown territory.  As part of his work, Robert has been working on mathematical climatic models this winter. Even with a simplistic model, changing large-scale land use practices (albedo) and the emissivity of the atmosphere alter the surface temperature. With complex mathematical models, outcomes need to be congruent with observable facts. We do not fully understand the complex web on our planet and our role.  A carbon neutral world is a theory.  Even if implemented, there could still be runaway climate change because of such impacts as destroying the Earth’s tropical rain forests, the melting of arctic sea ice, and the doubling of atmospheric N₂O levels via agriculture, etc.  At present, we fear that the choices we see that we can implement involve drastic changes without guarantees, and great suffering. The real cost of climate change is hardship for many life forms, including people.

[Hoy]

Robert,

glad to hear you are recovering from your flu. And let us hope the Earth doesn't end up like another Venus.

[Robert]

Today was a snow survey day. Earlier, after a day or two of somewhat near record breaking high temperatures for this time of year, the weather has settled into a warm and persistently dry pattern. The few storms dropping from the direction of the Gulf of Alaska have been very weak by the time they have reached California. In our region, at the best they have produced some cloudy skies. A cut-off low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of Southern California later in the forecast period. At the best we will get some cloudiness and perhaps a few light rain showers over the Sierra Nevada with this system. The overall pattern is persistent and has elements that are self-perpetuating. Eventually the pattern will break down, but the question now is when? And will there be sufficient precipitation to end our precipitation season without beginning a new sequence of drought in Northern California?

Today’s snow survey brought me to Loon Lake, elevation 6,410 feet (1,954 meters). The road is ploughed into Loon Lake during the winter, however much of the snow around the lake has melted. As an example, since 1 February 25% of the snow pack at Loon Lake has melted (liquid equivalents). To date, precipitation amounts are running about 60% of average in our region. It will take a great deal of precipitation during March and April to get us back to the seasonal average. In addition, there is no guarantee that if abundant precipitation arrives in March and April that it will fall as snow in much of the Sierra Nevada (e.g. ARs with high snow levels).



Down on Peavine Ridge (5,125 feet – 1,562 meters) there is basically no snow. There are a few traces on very shaded north slopes, but other than that there is no snow. At 5,250 feet (1,600 meters) the snow will be gone by tomorrow. If the current weather pattern persists in a week or 10 days there will be no snow at 5,500 feet (1,676 meters).

Since temperatures are warm and there is no snow cover at many locations, even around Loon Lake, I have some photographs of plants to share with you over the next few days.