Robert’s Crystal Range Project – Year 2, 2020

[Robert]

Cohan.

All your comments are well taken! 

I have been in the process of reevaluating my diary and finding a better way to proceed. I “dodged a bullet” with my recent hospital experience. I see the need to reestablish balance and practice health. Progressing with my diary, minus some of the items pertaining to atmospheric science, is my desire. I like using the “Flowers and Foliage Now” – Northern Hemisphere to discuss progress with my tinkering with plants.

Currently Jasmin and I are settling back into our house. I hope remodeling is done forever!    Outside, I am preparing the garden for the 2021 season – yes, a bit early, but many of the borders are in much need of work and are “devoid of flowers” as Monet would say concerning his garden at Giverny. We are also starting into a heat wave. Daily high temperatures have been about 100 F (37.8 C), however 112 F (44.4 C) has been forecasted by Tuesday. At this time the heat wave looks as if it will last 10 days or so. Time to get out into the garden and water.

Hopefully I will be out in the field again by the end of August.

[cohan]

That's a heatwave, alright! We have Sun -Tues forecast at 29, 30, 27C which would tie our hottest for the year, (though last time we had a few nights at 13-15C and this time nothing over 11) and be the second longest stretch of 'hot' days it's possible it may not even rain for several days, but I'll believe it when it happens...lol

If you can get beds ready for next season now, you are well ahead of the game My weeding currently is more like hacking through the jungle....lol

[Robert]

Cohan.

Interesting weather report. Thank you for sharing the information.

Our hot weather is just getting started. Yesterday’s high was 102 F (38.9 C) and the low was 73 F (22.8 C). Not exactly good sleeping weather. So far the garden is holding up well, but the worst of the heat is yet to come. Fortunately our Sacramento home is close to the Sacramento River and high temperatures tend to run 5 F (2.8 C) cooler than surrounding locations a mile or two more distant from the river. Our only rain might be in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. There is strong subtropical moisture advection in our region. Precipitalble water values are running over 1 inch in many locations and mid-level lapse rates are fairly high over the mountains. We will see what happens, especially if the 4-Corners High shifts westward.

[cohan]

Sounds like some potentially dramatic weather! and not great for sleeping indeed... The highest likely overnight here is 16C/60F and that happens at most once or twice a year, usually.. this year we had those several days in the 13-15C overnight range, and no more forecast.. our highest this week now is 10C/50F and that is not on the warmest days... we've already been very near the freezing mark a few times..

[Hoy]

Robert,

Seems your hot and dry weather also generate wildfires, as usual. It's in the news here.

We had a nice June, then July came with cold weather and much rain. August has been better with nice, warm weather, although not record breaking. Unfortunately we have some fog at the outer coast, but a few miles inland they have close to 30C these days.

The electric power is very cheap now as the reservoirs are filled almost to the brim, some also above! This is caused by all the rain in July and the late snowmelt.

[Robert]

Our weather continues to be unpredictable. The extreme heat is predictable, however the continued surges of subtropical moisture have been difficult for me to predict. My forecasting analysis continues to show the upper level low located at 53 N – 146 W and its accompanying tough to weaken and move northeastward. This is not happening or has not happened yet. This morning, at 1200 Z, the 4-corners high was located at 40 N – 114 W and was continuing to drive subtropical moisture northward into California. Last night at 12:30 am, local time, a line of thunderstorms moved through our area. We recorded only 0.03 inches (0.76 mm) of precipitation at our home. it was impossible to sleep with the humid air (humid relative to  California) and high nighttime temperatures. The garden is almost devoid of plants now. The heat appears like it will continue for another 7 days or more. At 4:00 pm in the afternoon, local time, it appears as if more thunderstorms may develop.

Cohan,

We have no shortage of weeds. It seems to be a common dilemma.

When I was looking at the 0600 Z northern hemisphere 300 mb map this morning it appeared that strong high pressure was building in the direction of your region of Canada. Is the weather currently drier and warmer than it has been?

[Robert]

Hi Trond,

Here are a few things that I would like to add pertaining to my last posting.

Here in our region of California, June and July both had average temperatures for the month. During the first 7 days of August we experienced much below average temperatures. This abruptly changed and now the average temperature for the month of August is running much above average.

I enjoy your weather – climatic reports. I always find them interesting. 

[Hoy]

Yesterday a low pressure system passed us. We got a lot of rain here in the mountains but not extraordinary. At my summerhouse they got 10 mm rain the whole day but a town nearby got >64mm in one hour! That's new all time record for Norway.

[cohan]

it was impossible to sleep with the humid air (humid relative to  California) and high nighttime temperatures. The garden is almost devoid of plants now. The heat appears like it will continue for another 7 days or more. At 4:00 pm in the afternoon, local time, it appears as if more thunderstorms may develop.

Cohan,

We have no shortage of weeds. It seems to be a common dilemma.

When I was looking at the 0600 Z northern hemisphere 300 mb map this morning it appeared that strong high pressure was building in the direction of your region of Canada. Is the weather currently drier and warmer than it has been?

Robert-- how humid is humid for you? Humidity is usually quite high here-- 50% to 70.80. often, and usually at 100% in the wee hours-dew in summer, frost in the colder seasons, more days than not. Of course when it is not really hot, it is less of an issue-- though there are usually a few sticky hours on warm afternoons.
We did have some warm days- the 16th to 18th were in the 29-32C 84-90F  range days, but only one night over 10C/50F, and we had a few rainless days...lol Currently a mild thunderstorm with a fair bit of rain this morning-- long time since we've had a morning thunderstorm, since they usually form in the foothills west of here and drift eastward, so late afternoon is a more usual start time.

Always interesting to think of places with reversed growing season-- i.e. growing in the cool time of year rather than summer, here of course it is a short compressed season (though natives/alpines etc are in growth far longer than the frost free season), but we have no mid-summer slow down, and winter nothing grows except indoors!

[Robert]

Yesterday a low pressure system passed us. We got a lot of rain here in the mountains but not extraordinary. At my summerhouse they got 10 mm rain the whole day but a town nearby got >64mm in one hour! That's new all time record for Norway.

Trond,

This is a very interesting tidbit of extreme weather data.

Here in California, the smoke is slowly clearing. I have been working on a very simplistic long-term weather model. This model extends out 30 to 60 days. Hopefully it will eventually prove to be effective in providing generalized long-term forecasts (30 to 60 days). Currently, this model is suggesting dry, below average precipitation, well into November and consistently above average temperatures for our region. This is all very experimental. In theory, such a simple model should not work, however I frequently think that the current complex dynamic-numerical models are too complex and frequently create their own errors in their attempt towards exactness. I am hoping that my much more generalized approach will provide accurate tendencies toward temperatures and precipitation. Precipitation amounts, even generalized, are much more difficult to forecast than temperature. I will see how this develops.

[Hoy]

Interesting Robert!

Do you use only "fresh data" in your model or do you also use historic data and old statistics?

[cohan]

Precipitation amounts, even generalized, are much more difficult to forecast than temperature. I will see how this develops.

It will be interesting to hear how this goes, not great news for Cali if you are correct... certainly here precipitation forecasts by Environment Canada are iffy at best, much of the time.. we often see that there is a forecast several days out, and it will change multiple times as the date gets closer, often ending up back where it was originally forecast when the day comes-- or the forecast remains changed, but the actual weather matches the original forecast.... of course in thunderstorm season, it is impossible to predict precip amounts, since you can know there will be storms in the area, but no idea where they will hit, and it can be a downpour in one spot and nothing a half mile away..

[hamparstum]

I have become a weather wizard locally out of need... Not even the various website predictors match amongst themselves when it comes to what actually happens on my property...Interestingly I can view Mt. Tronador from it, the highest peak around right on the border with Chile. The local natives ( Mapuches) viewed it and if there were clouds gathering around the summit, that meant invariable foul weather the next 24/48 hours. The shape of the clouds could indicate just a windstorm. Locally lenticular clouds (lentil shaped) indicate with about 24 hours notice  imminent windstorms. Windstorms are mostly from the west, north-west. After wind we get some precipitation in spring-winter either rain or snow depending on the temperatures.
So my present weather savvy, is the most bizarre combination of predictive methods. of which  AccuWeather, WindGuru, Wunderground and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional are the Internet prediction providers. Every morning at breakfast we make the local assessment. We are progressing ( me after 30 years). We more or less guess right about 70% of the times...
Arturo

[Hoy]

    ......

Every morning at breakfast we make the local assessment. We are progressing ( me after 30 years). We more or less guess right about 70% of the times...
Arturo

Arturo, if you just say "the weather will be the same tomorrow as it is today" you'll be right almost 70% of the time - at least here!

[hamparstum]

It started clear skied sunny this morning, now a haze is covering the sky, very faint and high cirrhus. Could we get rain later? Perhaps...now its too calm. No precipitation predicted in Wunderground, but yes cloudy....Once the day is over I can describe the historical facts...
Arturo