Robert's Crystal Range Project - Year 3, 2021

[Robert]

Yesterday’s (10 July) high temperature at the Placerville property was 112 F (44.4 C). This is a new all time high temperature. The old record was 110 F.



The sensor for my data logger sits a few inches away from the mercury thermometer pictured above. It recorded a high temperature of 111.22 F (44.011 C) at 15:35. Both readings are very close and both break the all time high temperature record.

The photograph of the mercury thermometer came via my brother who is presently at the Placerville property. The information on the data logger I can access remotely from our Sacramento home. Over the next few days my brother and I will be deploying a weather station at the Placerville property that we can both access remotely. We will finally have a pyranometer to record solar radiation. It is a silicon type pyranometer, by no means the most accurate especially when the sun is very low in the sky, however it should be accurate enough for my purposes.

[cohan]

Lots of interesting stuff since I last checked in! Great projects afoot with your farm restoration etc. I'm glad you are able to use sustainable techniques to steward and nurture the soil and all that comes with it in spite of climate challenges! Some of the recent temperatures have been shocking (esp to those of us who live where they are - so far- unimaginable!).

The recent Pacific Northwest Heat Dome had impacts into my area- though locally we did not get above 35C, not quite all time records (we had a36 a few years ago) -but the number of consecutive days at/ near/over 30C with nights 13 to 17C (we usu only get a couple of nights per year over 12) was very unusual. Fortunately we did not get the 40C range that many areas in B.C. and a few in AB reached, nor the 20C nights (we just aren't equipped for it- need much better insulation to keep the heat out and AC wouldn't be amiss for a few days! we also have humidity with those temps, esp here out of town, surrounded by vegetation).
We've also been lucky to have a good amount of precipitation so far, unlike some places- parts of B.C. are going up in flame, and even a friend in the nominally similar area near Edmonton, AB has had virtually no moisture since spring.
Interesting times for sure, in the sense of the supposed ancient Chinese curse!

[ian mcdonald]

Robert, we are seeing pictures of the fires on the news. Are you affected?

[Robert]

Ian,

Currently, there are no wildfires near our Sacramento home or our Placerville property. Yesterday, my brother could smell some smoke at the Placerville property, however it is unlikely it was coming from the Beckwourth Complex fire in Lassen County (see satellite image). You can see the smoke plume in the satellite image (upper just right of center) drifting off to the northeast. Our Sacramento home is located to the far lower left in the satellite image. The Placerville property is located in the next county to the right of our Sacramento home where the brown color starts to fade into the green color in the satellite image.

Over the last 5 years, wildfires have created a great deal of dense smoke with xenobiotic substances in the smoke that have adversely affected our garden. Many plant species were very sensitive to the xenobiotic substances. Some of these plants outright died, while others survived but were so adversely affected that we removed them. Climate change is one factor involved in the increased wildfire activity and the destructiveness, however massive damaging alterations of our natural ecosystems by the gold seekers (49er’s) from 1849 through the later 1800’s is a major factor. Even the activities of the Spanish during the 1600’s and 1700’s profoundly impacted our natural ecosystems, however most of this impact was along the California coast. Development and agriculture (both food crops and ranching) have severely altered or outright obliterated our natural ecosystems. There are strong indications that the pace of climate change is accelerating in our region. The plants in our garden and in managed – unmanaged ecosystems are responding to these shifts, not always in desirable ways. There is a need for me to be resilient as a gardener.



Cohan,

There has been a great deal of talk in my social circles about the recent heat wave in British Columbia. To help illustrate see the chart below.



This chart shows the maximum high temperature reached each year, July to June 1987-1988 through 2020-2021 at our Placerville property. Most seasons the maximum high temperature is in the 103 F to 105 F range (second column). 6 years had maximum high temperatures in the 109 F to 111 F range. So currently, we can expect that every 10 years we will have 1 or 2 years where the high temperatures will reach 109 F to 111 F. This is, more or less, accurate based on long-term historical data from our area in California Climatic Year Book. Our recent new all time high temperature of ~ 111 – 112 F is just on the high end margin of the 109 F – 111 F column; something we might except every 50 years or so. A 120 F temperature is way off this chart, and even more so, a chart based on data from Kamloops, BC. Based on an analysis of this information, a 120 F high temperature might occur every 10 to 20 thousand years or more??? I would have to see the all the actual data to make this type of determination, but this heat event was way, way, way off the charts! To say this event is highly troubling is an understatement, but is indicating how out-of-control climate change has become. It is also another indication that climate change is accelerating.

The events I see taking place (more than just climate change) have prompted me to take action: Growing most of our own food using sustainable methods, and become a highly resilient gardener (both food and ornamental plants). I want to think carefully about everything I grow and how. Currently, I give much consideration to what I want the garden to look like. Is this realistic? From what I read on the Forum it is clear that climate change is impacting gardens almost everywhere on our planet, some locations more so than other locations. I hope the Forum can be a source of information to help gardeners successfully adjust to the climatic changes taking place.

[cohan]

One can only wonder how things will be in the next few yeras to come, never mind beyond that. My immediate region has been less impacted than many- apart from literally 2 days a few years back, this is the first time we've had significant effects from heatwaves that have been prominent in many other places, even other parts of Alberta. We have had a definite general warming, which sounds like a good thing in a cold climate, and often most people would think so, but it is not that simple with climate change, of course.
More than anything, it means extremes so while this summer has mostly been above average to far above, and most of the last winter was also above average, for the last couple of winters we have had cold events near the extreme of our norms right at the end of the season.  These variable patterns seem to affect some plants in the rock gardens, but the associations are complex and hard to pinpoint- nothing so easy as drought! Each year some plants have dieback while others have banner years- and a different set the next year.
Oveall, effects on plants here have not been serious, but erratic springs can make sowing unpredictible for farmers, and while frost is generally later, wet falls can make harvest difficult, so we are certainly not immune. Both north and south of us in AB this year is very dry, looking like it could be a near total loss in some areas, though crops here are looking very good.

[Robert]

Cohan,

As one of our Sacramento neighbors noted, the next 20 years are going to be very interesting (concerning climate change). I am already faced with many climate related challenges in our garden.

[cohan]

Cohan,

As one of our Sacramento neighbors noted, the next 20 years are going to be very interesting (concerning climate change). I am already faced with many climate related challenges in our garden.

Indeed! Even here ( I say that very locally, since other parts of the province have had much more severe weather in several ways) where we have mostly had non-damaging climate change, the effects have still been quite notable since I moved back in 2007- in particular, springs have tended to be early, which means dry, though still variable, and this past winter was one of the warmest I've seen, though with a serious cold spell at the end!

[Robert]

I was recently in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. In the days ahead, I will post photographs and report on my continuing project.

[Robert]

Before reporting on my last outing, some background on our current climatic conditions will provide the reader with a better understanding of what our mountain ecosystems and the plants that grow in them are encountering. These systems are currently enduring severe drought in addition to the cumulative impacts of long-term shifts in our climatic patterns.

Presently, thick smoke from the Dixie Fire blankets Northern and a large portion of Central California. Large-scale wildfires and the dense smoke from them is now a yearly occurrence. The dense smoke persists for many weeks; frequently well over a month or more. As with the destruction of the Amazonian Rainforest, the wildfires release large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, compromising the ecosystem’s ability to act as a carbon sink; it alters meso-scale weather patterns, and regional hydrology.

This season is the third driest season in over 140 years (since precipitation records were kept). The three driest seasons on record have all occurred since the 1976-77 precipitation season. When I finish my statistical analysis of our regional precipitation patterns, the dramatic shifts that have taken place will be quite clear. There is strong evidence that during the Medieval Warm Period, California endured two periods of drought, both approximately 100 years in duration. Current climatic shifts in our region suggest that such long-term periods of drought are possible in the future.

In our region, the current trend of increasing average annual temperatures continues. The latest July to June time period was the second warmest on record. Monthly high temperature anomalies are becoming more frequent. The average temperature during July 2021 was the second warmest on record. The average high temperature for July 2021 was the highest on record, and a new all time record high temperature of 111 F (43.89 C) was set on 10 July 2021 at our Placerville property. Many other high temperatures have been broken, and if the current seasonal trend continues, more high temperature extremes will be broken by the end of the current summer/autumn season. In the Sierra Nevada Mountains, high temperature extremes are much more extreme. For example, during July 2021 temperatures at our Placerville property were 4.65 F (2.58 C) above average. At 6,600 feet elevation on the western slope of the Crystal Range (our local portion of the Sierra Nevada Mountains) July 2021 temperatures were 5.21 F (2.89 C) above average. This temperature spread and shift was projected years ago in early climatic models for our region. There is strong evidence during the Medieval Warm Period temperatures were up to 2 C warmer than they 50 years ago. Evidence supports the hypothesis that large-scale elevation shifts in our regional vegetation occurred.

Both managed and unmanaged systems are being impacted by these climatic changes. Unmanaged systems are frequently very stable and resilient to change. However, these systems have their tipping points and biological limits. Managed systems (agricultural, or gardens) can be designed to be resistant to disruption caused by climatic change. These design elements have many facets; however increasing the carbon content of the soil is likely the most effective means of designing resilience into managed systems. We now live in a world where we need to adjust our practices to rapidly changing environmental conditions.




It is not unusual for Tells Creek to become dry, especially during a dry season. Low water flows and a dry water channel at the end of July in this area are extreme. Other spring fed creeks in this area, which I monitor frequently, are flowing at record low levels. This suggests that the long-term storage of the underground aquifers is also becoming depleted. I see evidence of this everywhere I travel in this area.



Bunk House Meadow (this is the name I give this location) is still fairly moist.



Anaphalis margaritacea is a frequently observed species in this area.



Solidago elongata is another frequently seen species. This species is blooming about 30 days earlier than average in this area.



The majority of the stands of Symphyotrichum spathulatum var. spathulatum that I observed were showing mild signs of environmental stress.

As the season progresses, indications of stress in these ecosystems is likely to increase due to high temperatures and continuing dry conditions.

As a side note, the monsoon season was fairly active in July. Most of the precipitation occurred south and east of this area. This is the usual monsoonal precipitation pattern for our region. This area did receive some measurable precipitation, 0.03” (0.76 mm). Studies have demonstrated that thunderstorms can repeatedly form over specific sites and terrain. I observe and record summertime thunderstorm activity on the western slope of the Crystal Range. During July thunderstorms frequently developed at specific sites and produced significantly more precipitation in these areas.

More later…

[cohan]

Interesting that the thunderstorms seem to occur in the same spots repeatedly. Here, the thunderstorms typically begin to develop in the foothills to the west of me, then move east and north, usually gaining strength as they move into progressively warmer zones farther from the mountains. Where they actually strike/where rain falls seems random or at least variable, though I think there is some channeling by topographical variation..

[Robert]

Cohan

I enjoyed your observations concerning thunderstorm genesis and patterns in your area. Are you familiar with terrain related convergence zones that trigger thunderstorms on a regular basis? One older study of this phenomenon can be found on the Internet – Schaaf et al., 1986. A Google search should bring it up easily.

I just read a synopsis of the U.N. Report on Climate Change. I am very skeptical of some of their optimistic conclusions. I certainly believe that there are tipping points; where natural systems move toward a new and different point of equilibrium (no going back to the pervious pattern of equilibrium). I am designing resiliency into my systems, both the ornamental garden as well as my agricultural projects.

[cohan]

I haven't read a lot about thunderstorm formation-- just for my region where the usual idea is (I might be missing some parts, it was a while ago that I read) that the morning sun hits the east facing foothills earlier than the lower lands in front of them, causing a temperature differential that initiates the cloud formation. Presumably evaporation and diurnal temperature swings further contribute to storm formation- also we don't usually get stable air masses-- there are often systems of varying temperature moving in from one of several directions.

[hamparstum]

Robert, I read today with quite some concern about the Calder fire in El Dorado county. Residents have been given evacuation orders near Placerville. I do hope you are still doing well. Nevertheless, my prayers are with you and your people there.
Arturo

[Robert]

Arturo,

Yes, the Calder Fire is very close to home. Folks we know have lost their home or have been evacuated. We have opened our Sacramento home to evacuees but so far our home has not been needed. The El Dorado County property is currently safe. I will report more when the situation is not as critical.

[cohan]

Hope the situation doesn't worsen!