Plants, Ecosystems, Climate – Northern California

[Robert]

Late autumn weather has settled into our region of California. There has been dense fog in the Central Valley with little or no clearing during the day. Above the inversion layer, skies have been clear with well above average temperatures.

Precipitation amounts during the first 2 weeks of November have been below average. In a slow process, I am gradually developing a climatic forecasting model that I can run on my laptop computer. It might seem an unrealistic endeavor, however I am enjoying every aspect. Based on statistical-type modeling, the current dry pattern appears that it will persist for the next month or more. Temperatures in November have been above average. This trend looks like it will continue for the next week. Beyond, for the next month temperatures could go in either direction. There are mixed and contrasting indications in both the statistical- and dynamic-type modeling.

Either way, it is obvious that both the daily and long-term climatic trends have a profound impact on plants, in our Sacramento garden, native ecosystems, and all managed and unmanaged ecosystems as a whole.



I have started seeding out species that need some degree of winter chilling (vernalization) to germinate properly. With climate change, it is questionable if there are adequate chilling hours for some species during the winter in our Sacramento garden. Epigenetic changes can sometimes take place that alter a seed’s response to chilling hours, allowing germination with fewer chilling hours and allowing these characteristics to be passed on to the progeny without altering the gene sequences of the genetic line.



Sometimes there is enough autumn chilling so we get pretty autumn foliage, as we once regularly did. Amazingly, this year, despite the heat and oppressive smoke, we are experiencing an incredibly gorgeous fall display, an event that we have missed for years. This is Acer Palmatum ‘Ornatum’



There are a few flowers remaining on the Zinnia elegans. The rain in October and the foggy weather are quickly bringing an end to the remaining plants. We are enjoying the beauty of the late color turning brown; the shift in colors from bright and exuberant to withering, much as Monet is said to have done with his garden in Giverny.



I allow many plants that might be considered weeds to grow in our garden:

Below center is Potentilla gracilis var. fastigiata. It is a native species that freely seeds around the garden. The species has a good degree of drought tolerance, has attractive foliage and bright yellow flowers. I let them seed around but need to control their numbers and locations.

Above the Potentilla is Verbascum nigrum. I might be getting into trouble with this one! The plant is a seedling volunteer from the Placerville property. I like the dark stems and yellow flowers. I hope I can control them. Various wild passerines enjoy the seeds. It is such a joy to watch the little birds perch and devour the seeds of this Verbascum, Zinnias, Cosmos, Oenothera, Perilla, and others.

Above the Verbascum and slightly to the right is Linaria purpuea. This is the standard purple form. For years only the pink Canon Went seeded around the garden. I am pleased to have the purple form. Linaria purpurea seeds around; however it has never been a problem in our garden.

Also in the photograph are seedlings of Digitalis purpurea. Although I planted these; however, to some extent, the species does seed around in our garden.

Many other species seed around our garden without any help on my part. I really enjoy our California native annual species that seed around in our garden.

[Robert]

The mild and dry weather continues in our portion of Northern California. November temperatures are running ~ 2.5 F (1.39 C) above average in the foothills and Sierra Nevada Mountains. At our Sacramento home temperatures are running ~ 0.5 F (0.28 C) above average.

Precipitation to date in November is 39% of the monthly average. Currently the prospect for more precipitation during the next 10 days appears unlikely. Because of the torrential rainfall in late October, our entire precipitation totals to date are still well above average. Unfortunately, the October storm was very warm and it left very little snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Now--more or less--all this snow has melted leaving us no snow pack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

The El Niño – Southern Oscillation teleconnection has a very strong influence on our California weather. The currently intensifying La Niña event is highly conducive to dry and cold weather in our part of California. With climate change, there has been a general trend toward rising geopotential heights in our region: During last winter’s strong La Niña event, the trend toward rising geopotential heights helped influence a shift where much of the cold weather remained north and east of our region; however the typical La Niña dry weather pattern persisted.

With the mild temperatures, common Borage, Borago officinalis, is still blooming in our garden.



Moraea polystachya continues to bloom in the mild weather.



The silvery gray foliage of Arctostaphylos viscida ssp. viscida is appreciated during the late autumn-winter months. The nascent upright inflorescences are very sticky, thus the name viscida. With it so warm, a few inflorescences have already expanded and bloomed with their delightful urns, an important winter nectar source for hummingbirds and butterflies. It is cause for concern, what will these precious creatures have if the weather turns cold? It remains to be seen if indeed it will turn cold, or any significant precipitation will occur. The lack of water is dire; however, that has not halted development and degradation of habitat.



With cool weather and rainfall, the summer dormant plants of Ranunculus occidentalis var. occidentalis quickly emerge from the ground and begin growth. Unlike Ranunculus occidentalis var. ultramontanus, variety occidentalis must be kept completely dry all summer. Hybrids between variety occidentalis and ultrmontanus are showing promise as useful garden plants in our garden, with tolerance to summer moisture and showy flowers.



The seed of Ranunculus occidentalis var. occidentalis germinates quickly after the weather cools in the autumn and the rain begins.

[Robert]

While working in the garden yesterday, I found a plant container full of volunteer seedlings of Echscholzia lobbii and Eucrypta chrysanthemifolia. Generally, fire is necessary to enhance the germination of Eucrypta chrysanthemifolia. I knew there was the possibility to develop a seed line of this species that would germinate abundantly without fire. These seedlings are the results of seed I missed when gathering seed in the late spring of last year. I will sow the seed I gathered soon; hopefully there will be a high rate of germination without fire/smoke treatment.



I have a lot of fun breeding many very common plant species. The two tubs each contain a different seed line of common Sweet Peas. I will cross the two lines with the goal of developing seed lines that germinate well in our relatively warm weather, have a wide flower color range, large flower trusses with many flowers, strong scent, and heat tolerance. Needless to say, all the goals will not be reached with one cross.



I do much breeding work in tubs, especially with small plants. This maximizes use of our small space, pollination and genetic control. Otherwise, containers are a delightful splash of color that can be rotated throughout the garden.



I make my own soil blocks. The first two tubs contain a line of common Viola that I am wishing to improve. Experimenting with common species works very well for me. Techniques I develop with common species frequently can be applied to other less common but desirable species: I like our local California native Viola species, such as Viola purpurea. The new techniques are useful in developing easier-to-cultivate forms of our local native Viola species.



Soil blocks are great for starting seed and transplanting seedlings. Many difficult- to-transplant species, transplant easily when seeded out in soils blocks.

[Hoy]

You certainly do an impressive work with plants, Robert! Hope your climate doesn't get too dry for growing plants. Here we had a dry but not too dry summer but the fall (October-November) has been rather wet, well above normal. The temperature has been above average until yesterday when it suddenly dropped (as expected from the forecast) and we got an inch of snow. Cold weather is expected next week also.

[Robert]

Hello Trond,

Our current weather/climatic trends look grim. In the short term, the next 7 to 10 days look dry with above average temperatures. To date, temperatures in November at the Placerville property are running 2.47 F (1.37 C) above average. There is basically no snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

For the winter season the climatic pattern looks equally grim. A La Niña has developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It appears that this will be a fairly strong event and persist through the winter months. This pattern is likely to produce dry winter/spring weather in our region. The current weak and inactive MJO pattern is not conducive to countering this dry trend; however this pattern shows hope of changing in the near future.

As to the future, the paleo-climatic data from our region strongly suggests California may return to a consistently dry climatic pattern where drought is the new normal. I have been experimenting with simple mathematical radiation/energy balance models for our region, comparing our current conditions with how they might have existed during the Medieval Warm Period. The first results suggest California could be rapidly progressing toward a climatic pattern where high temperatures and drought conditions exceed those that were experienced during the Medieval Warm Period. I do not consider my preliminary results conclusive; however they are not encouraging either.



Despite the uncertainties of the future weather I continue to move forward with my gardening projects. In this photograph, the flats are filled with freshly seeded California native annuals and other very common winter/spring annuals (breeding projects). Shortly, I will have all the desired seed lots planted – this is a first in many, many years.



I have a number of seed lots planted of our local California native Viola species. So far, there have been very positive results and incremental progress. This is a nice heat-tolerant form of Viola adunca ssp. adunca that resulted from last year’s sowing of seed gathered from a local low elevation population.



Food security and sustainable farming practices form the core of our current gardening methodology. Here a nice stand of cereal rye, Secale cereal, is coming on nicely.



In another part of the garden is a planting of Ethiopian Two-rowed Barley, Hordeum vulgare. Both cereal crops will likely produce well despite any dry conditions we might encounter this winter/spring. I am very pleased to be growing cereal grains again. Fresh homegrown cereals grains are incredibly delicious!

[Hoy]

The weather here has turned rather cold. After a summer and early fall with well above normal temperatures we are now in a cold spell. I can't remember the last time we had that cold weather for so many weeks at this time of the year. It is expected to last a couple weeks more. In the north they have gotten loads of snow, much more than normal. Seems a La Niña pattern leads to cold weather here, I have seen it before.

Interesting that you grow cereals. Can you grow all you need for a full year? I have tried corn (Zea mays) but it isn't very productive. Too few plants I suppose. I have also tried one plant of the following crops: sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas). They did grow well but only small tubers. The best so far is oca (Oxalis tuberosa), one plant gave a lot of small corms. I also have tried yacon (Smallanthus sonchifolius) but haven't harvested it yet.

Will be interesting to follow your work with garden worthy plants. I let the nature select the plants for me! I make no deliberate crosses though.

[Robert]

Hello Trond,

Thank you for the interesting climatic report. I am always interested in this type of information. Jasmin finds these things fascinating too. We both enjoy great curiosity and desire to learn.

Here in our part of California climatic conditions are grim, or flat out scary! Jasmin thinks crazy scary. Yesterday’s (28 November) high temperature at 6,700 ft. (2,042 meters) was 60 F (15.6 C). This was a new record high temperature for this site. The old record was 55 F (12.8 C) set in 2017. For the month, average temperatures are running 3.87 F (2.15 C) above average. Year to date, the average temperature is 1.470 C above the baseline starting point. There is no snow, well a trace that amounts to 0.28% of average to date.

At the Placerville property 1,500 feet (457 meters), the situation is not much better. To date, the average temperature for this November is 2.67 F (1.48 C) above average. Year to date, the average temperature is running 1.434 C above average. There has been only one month with below average temperatures since the beginning of 2021. Over the last few years, the rate at which the average annual temperature has been increasing is accelerating dramatically. Considering my temperature data sets have over 40 years of daily-recorded temperature readings, the temperate rate change represents a very significant acceleration.

To day, 29 November – looks like it will be much warmer than yesterday. Many record daily high temperatures will likely be broken today.

In summary:

> Over the past 150 plus years, our average annual precipitation totals have been dropping dramatically. Drought seems to be the new normal.

> Our average annual temperature has increased ~ 1.50 C in the last 45 years. The rate of temperature increase is accelerating.

There is no sign that these trends are going to reverse themselves. These are the conditions under which we garden. 

Jasmin’s attitude is what she calls worried-practical: If we just worry, the weather is not going to change. So, we may as well feel thankful for each day, and do the best we can. We plan breeding projects, and garden knowing some things will live and some will die. It is not about preserving beloved plants at all costs, to see them slowly demise and die anyway. We give things a chance, but when the inevitable death throes appear, we no longer are tormented by grief and what-did-we-do-wrongs. Yes, we investigate and learn, but we move on much faster than in the past. There will always be factors we cannot discover, and we are more accepting of the unknowable.
 
Food security interests Jasmin a great deal. When she was young, the family experienced great poverty and hardship, to the extent she experienced hunger not just a great deal, but regularly. As a child, she would will herself to not be hungry, to not be a burden. She sees this formative thinking as a blessing and asset now, because there is the deep appreciation for food and food security that is on a level most people around do not perceive or feel gratitude for. So much is taken for granted when one has, has abundantly, with easy access. 

This way of seeing is not associated with America. Sadly, many do not think this reality is even in America, then or now. Some have outright said my wife never experienced hunger, and was a liar. When her mother lived, her mother would correct them and verify their truth. Yes, it wasn’t the extreme poverty and hunger of war-time and post-war Europe, especially if one was a prisoner-slave in the Nazi camps, nevermind if one was a Jew in the work camps [“Extermination through work” is how it was called]. Still, hunger was something she experienced that I never did.

I grew up with abundance, and waste of food because there was so much. My childhood reality is so far from my wife’s. Nonetheless, we share a garden vision.  We see the climate change, and the impact of COVID, and have decided to blend our garden experiments into a fusion of ornamental and vegetable breeding for resiliency. It pushes my knowledge in a way just experimenting with ornamentals does not. I find areas of crossover, where skills I develop in ornamentals or foods serve the other. Facing climate challenges, and the plant diseases that thrive in such variable conditions, is deeply rewarding.

Once upon a time, I could not imagine thriving on such a small plot; however, I am grateful I do not have the space now. It challenges me to focus, to prioritize, and to let go of projects: With limited space, one cannot keep everything, and it cannot sit around turning into a dump pile from inattention. I probably have more messes than desirable, and Jasmin is kind enough not to gnaw at me about these things.   

[Hoy]

Robert,

Thank you for your report. It is interesting to read albeit somewhat depressing. But I am optimistic though and hope the worst scenarios don't come true.

I can't understand why some people should think Jasmin is lying about what she experienced as young. It is a sad truth that many families experienced poverty and hunger even in "rich" countries like US and Norway. Some do even today. I hope though for a better future for everybody although I am less optimistic regarding this issue than the climate. But the two are clearly connected.

We have had snow lying on the ground and snowy weather for several days now. Can't remember we have had anything similar in at least 20 years!

[Robert]

I have started my analysis of the November data from my remote weather monitoring sites located at various elevations from the foothills to the crest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in El Dorado County.

First, I wish to correct an oversight in a previous posting. We have actually experienced two months with below average temperatures at the Placerville property in 2021: March 2021 was 2.16 F (1.20 C) below average and October 2021 was 2.02 F (1.12 C) below average. Except for slightly above average temperatures in February 2021, all the other months experienced much above average temperature or record high average temperatures. To date, 2021 has been extremely warm.

I routinely log data at one 6,700 feet (2,042 meters) site in the Crystal Range of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. During the month of November 2021 this site experienced a new record average high temperature of 42.00 F (5.56 C). Six new daily high temperature records were broken, with one additional date that tied the record. Two new daily high low temperature records were broken, with one additional tie. No daily low temperature records were broken. Although there was some snow on the ground at the beginning of November, for much of the month there was no snow on the ground. Currently, there is no snow on the ground in the Crystal Range except traces on north facing slopes at the highest elevations.

I like to quantify my climatic reports from our region: Plants and plant communities respond to both the internal variability of climate, and the long-term climatic changes taking place. This is true for both managed (our gardens, agriculture) and unmanaged (wild places) locations. Now more than ever, there is a need to adjust our gardening practices and the plants we select to grow in our gardens to the volatile climatic circumstances. Altering gardening practices can help plants adjust to erratic weather patterns and extremes. Growing new species can help us better understand the range of tolerance a species might have to many environmental variables. Through observation, new selections of species can be made that are better adapted to our changing garden circumstances. This also applies to new hybrids, for those interested in this method of plant selection. There are many challenges, but also opportunities for those who enjoy gardening.

Today it is quite foggy, however the record-breaking heat continues above the inversion layer.



Germination is taking place with many of the recently sown California native annual species.



The tiny seeds of Erythranthe guttata and E. bicolor germinate well in the small soil blocks.



Layia platyglossa is also quite to germinate.

Other species take more time to germinate. Some species may need more vernalization than they can currently receive during our Sacramento winters. 40 years ago cold frosty winters were normal. Not now. It is a difficult decision to make – do I refrigerate the seeds so they receive adequate stratification or do I keep them in place and select for plants that produce seed that requires less vernalization to germinate. With plenty of seed I could do both. With limited seed additional stratification is likely the best choice until I have a large inventory of seed to draw from. With our changing climate all sorts of new choices need to be made.

[Hoy]

This is the temperature deviasjon in Norway from the 1961-1990 average:

https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/klima-siste-150-ar/_/image/82d60ee8-e86f-4c90-b491-b72861602c95:9e4a7abec3d45a9957f89ca78dd9bb1786ab9d50/width-768/TAMA_G0_0.svg


And this is the precipitation deviation for the same period.

https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/klima-siste-150-ar/_/image/519c98ef-0220-408a-a39d-a9721b4fc5c9:f0b81e0bf3af8ba6bc7a18cdef4a114190652eb5/width-768/RRA_G0_0.svg

It is getting warmer and wetter.

[Robert]

Hello Trond,

I found the graphics fascinating, so much so that I photographed the screen (i.e. saved them). Thank you for posting them.

The relationship between rising temperatures and increasing amounts of precipitation are not surprising considering the nearly exponential relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature (Clausius – Claperyron equation). I measure daily levels of absolute humidity throughout my study area. In general, absolute humidity rises with temperature; however in our region this does not necessarily translate into increased precipitation [Jasmin adds:  or precipitation at all!  I explain this momentarily.]. The general Rossby Wave pattern around the Northern Hemisphere largely governs the transport of latent heat (at lower levels of the atmosphere ~ 850 mb) and sensible heat (at mid and high levels of the atmosphere ~ 500 mb and 250 mb) northward (a planetary energy balance). Given the generalized trough pattern in the eastern U.S.A., with the cresting wave in the vicinity of northwestern Europe, with another trough in Eastern Europe, I am not surprised by the temperature and precipitation data you posted. Of course, this is a very generalized description of the Rossby Wave pattern (there is also the generalized trough in eastern Asia – in lee of the mountainous interior – a similar relationship to that of the Rocky Mountains and the Eastern U.S.A. trough). There are seasonal pattern variances caused by winter-summer and land-ocean temperature differences; and additionally, in our part of the globe the frequently strong influences of the ENSO, MJO, AO, etc. This is all very simplified; however it explains our current warm, dry weather despite consistently high absolute humidity levels. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas, but not a forcing agent as are CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O. However, water vapor can create a positive feedback loop allowing temperatures to rise more than if absolute humidity levels remained constant.

Thank you again for posting the graphics.

Today we are having our second day of persistent fog. Above the inversion layer temperatures are still above average; however they are somewhat less than their record-breaking levels. Some important changes have taken place in the atmosphere. Hopefully these will lead to some much-needed precipitation in our region.

[Hoy]

Hello Trond,

I found the graphics fascinating, so much so that I photographed the screen (i.e. saved them). Thank you for posting them.

Robert,

Here is the main page:

https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/klima-siste-150-ar/

with graphics for each season.

We are warned about the coupling of increased temperature and precipitation -  and also about the increasing frequency og disastrous weather. We had an incident in November when extremely strong gusts of winds  flattened vast forests in the eastern parts of the country. They are usually spared such things.



 https://g.acdn.no/obscura/API/dynamic/r1/ece5/tr_2000_2000_s_f/0000/oppl/2021/11/22/15/IMG-83191.jpg?chk=666A97

[Robert]

We finally have a major shift in our local weather. Average daily temperatures dropped dramatically. The first significant precipitation fell after many weeks of dry weather. Snow fell in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with snow levels dropping to 3,500 feet (1,067 meters) for the first time this season. At our Sacramento home there has been patchy frost the past two mornings. We are actually getting some winter chilling. The seed I planted recently may actually get sufficient vernalization and germinate well without refrigeration.  [Jasmin says:  Wow! Does that mean I can fit food in the refrigerator—absolutely no juggling with plants for space?!?]

This is just some of the good weather news: Presently, a major winter storm is bearing down on our region. This storm is expected to have major impacts on our region: significant precipitation, extremely low snow levels, and major snow accumulations in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. This is expected to be a multi-day event. The first precipitation is expected to arrive this evening with lingering showers predicted 7 days out in the current forecast. We desperately need precipitation and a lingering snow pack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains to avoid a catastrophic water crisis this coming summer. The 20-plus-years drought may not end; however there is hope that a catastrophic water crisis may be avoided this coming summer.  [Jasmin says:  This we pray from our mouths to God’s ear!]

With colder temperatures our garden is getting a bit of a winter rest.



There are not many flowers in the garden at this time; however the foliage of Cyclamen species is very attractive and is a great plus for the garden during the winter.



A few Cyclamen species such as Cyclamen coum will be blooming soon.



Cyclamen foliage seems to come in an infinite variety of patterns.



Cyclamen graecum does very well in our garden and has nice foliage during the winter. This pot has many seedlings that can be transplanted into our garden.



The first Hoop-Petticoat Narcissus to bloom in our garden is Narcissus romieuxii and its various forms. Flower buds generally start to open around the end of December. We grow our plants out in the open without protection from the weather. With a greenhouse and early autumn watering they would likely bloom earlier in the season.

[Robert]

I have two clones of Arctostaphylos myrtifolia that I grow in our garden. This clone consistently blooms about 3 to 4 week before the other clone.



The seeds of California native annual species that I planted about two weeks ago have germinated well.



Our California native annuals make rapid growth in the cool moist weather.



Even with the cool weather, there is still plenty to keep me busy in our mild California garden:  After 15 years of caregiving, many neglected yet beloved plants such as this lovely silver-leafed Cyclamen hederifolium can receive the tender loving care we have longed to bestow.  Additionally, now that winter dormancy has come to the garden, winter pruning can commence.



A parting view of our garden as high clouds rapidly stream in in advance of the first cold front imbedded in the long wave trough. Geo potential heights are likely to fall to their lowest levels of the season to date. A series of very cold, very wet storms is just what we need. It is very exciting!

[Hoy]

Robert,

You have some very nice Cyclamens!

I grow a few in my garden but they have been covered by snow for 14 days now. But yesterday we got warmer weather so the snow disappear rapidly.


It seems you will get quite a lot of precipitation the next days. Hope it doesn't just run off but percolate through the soil.